Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70     71.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  32.4  33.3  38.0  49.1  55.0  67.6  75.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.2  53.0  47.9  43.2  43.2  34.7  26.6  19.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  15.0  20.0  17.0   7.0  -7.0  -9.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  57.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  36.0  35.0  40.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -12.0 -13.0 -11.0  -5.0   0.0  -7.0 -23.0 VF  F VF  F  F  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons