Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     71.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  26.1  24.8  28.1  27.2  30.6  36.4  36.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  67.2  64.4  60.4  54.3  54.3  52.0  40.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  19.0  17.0  23.0  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  36.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -14.0 -11.0 -12.0  -6.0  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons