Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     71.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  30.7  28.8  29.2  24.2  24.4  18.1  22.7  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  67.2  65.8  64.4  63.0  63.0  61.7  59.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  23.0   9.0   0.0  11.0  -1.0   6.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  48.0  44.0  36.0  33.0  31.0  32.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -19.0 -22.0 -23.0 -19.0 -17.0  -6.0  -6.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons