Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00     71.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  29.3  27.8  26.0  24.8  23.5  19.7  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.2  75.8  75.8  74.4  74.4  74.4  73.0  66.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   9.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   3.0  12.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  48.0  43.0  35.0  29.0  33.0  29.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -22.0 -22.0 -25.0 -17.0 -11.0  -6.0  -8.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons