Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     70.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  27.3  24.7  23.6  20.4  19.9  26.2  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  79.4  79.4  79.4  76.7  74.2  69.3  55.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0 -11.0  15.0   5.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  37.0  36.0  32.0  36.0  37.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -19.0 -12.0 -12.0  -9.0  -5.0 -16.0 -26.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons