Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     70.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  23.2  22.6  26.5  23.9  32.3  40.9  50.5  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  75.4  74.2  74.2  69.3  61.7  54.1  43.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   5.0   5.0 -13.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  43.0  43.0  37.0  31.0  32.0  28.0  38.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0  -9.0  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0 -12.0 -32.0 -59.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons