Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201119 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00     67.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  23.2  30.7  31.8  36.7  46.9  85.8  85.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.7  74.3  70.9  66.7  59.1  49.7  36.3  36.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  18.0  16.0   8.0  -9.0  21.0  87.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  34.0  33.0  34.0  32.0  37.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0 -10.0 -20.0 -67.0 -93.0 -93.0  F  N  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons