Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201207 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10     80.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.0  14.7  11.7  20.9  30.0  29.7  40.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  42.0  30.0  18.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 115.1 108.6 102.4  86.0  69.4  61.7  59.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  30.0  37.0  42.0  29.0  47.0  34.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        7.3%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       34.3%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.0%       22.1%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       22.1%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       17.1%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       33.7%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%       19.5%       11.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        4.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        7.1%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%