Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90     79.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.9  20.3  28.4  32.9  29.3  33.9  42.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  18.0   9.0   4.0   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  85.5  79.8  72.7  63.0  55.8  54.4  58.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   9.0  21.0  23.0  10.0  21.0  36.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.1%       12.6%       15.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       18.5%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       10.5%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       10.5%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%        9.3%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       10.5%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        4.5%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons