Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  23.9  23.2  31.1  40.2  40.8  47.5  51.8  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.5  76.2  66.1  57.2  49.2  45.5  39.8  42.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  51.0  43.0  53.0  28.0   7.0  31.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  45.0  40.0  37.0  33.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -10.0  -6.0  -7.0 -11.0 -10.0  -9.0 -16.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        3.6%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        5.6%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons