Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70     77.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  27.0  32.0  37.0  40.9  49.6  49.1  60.8  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.2  67.7  63.0  57.2  53.0  54.4  61.5  54.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  -4.0  -4.0  12.0  28.0  40.0  29.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0 -12.0  -6.0   9.0  21.0  17.0  36.0  F  F  F  F  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons