Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     76.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  30.6  33.7  41.6  40.9  43.3  46.3  45.9  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   0.8   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.4  60.4  60.4  61.7  70.0  73.0  82.7  86.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  10.0  33.0  35.0  36.0  54.0  10.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  47.0  43.0  43.0  41.0  45.0  48.0  53.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -10.0  -8.0  -6.0  -9.0  -3.0 -11.0 -14.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons