Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.90     75.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  36.0  34.1  32.9  36.7  41.9  42.2  44.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  61.7  64.2  66.7  79.6  78.0  86.0  87.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  49.0  46.0  30.0  49.0  19.0   0.0 -36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  41.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -11.0 -14.0 -13.0 -16.0  -5.0  -6.0  -2.0 VF  F VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons