Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20     75.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  33.1  32.6  36.3  37.1  41.0  40.3  35.1  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  64.2  68.0  70.8  79.6  79.6  91.2  98.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  46.0  30.0  60.0  28.0  21.0 -17.0 -22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  52.0  47.0  41.0  36.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -16.0 -16.0 -24.0 -11.0 -10.0  -5.0  -7.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons