Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201211 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.90     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.3  39.4  44.9  49.3  50.3  47.6  37.9  35.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  17.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.9  73.0  75.8  78.6  80.0  91.0 105.5 111.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  60.0  38.0  25.0  -7.0   0.0  -2.0 -25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  43.0  45.0  47.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -27.0 -19.0 -14.0 -13.0 -17.0 -15.0  -8.0 -11.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons