Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022021 201211 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.90     71.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.9  55.9  53.5  56.0  50.2  42.9  33.8  29.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  76.7  79.4  88.0  97.7 101.2 103.0 114.4  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   8.0   5.0 -32.0 -42.0 -14.0 -23.0 -27.0  U  U  U VU VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  47.0  42.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  38.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -15.0 -17.0 -23.0  -8.0  -4.0   1.0  -4.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons