Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032021 201209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.10    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  41.3  38.1  38.0  31.3  33.1  34.2  33.9 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  27.0  37.0  50.0  58.0  68.0  89.0  99.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  20.0  38.0  27.0  18.0  -5.0   8.0  24.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  66.0  63.0  57.0  49.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -9.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        1.4%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        6.9%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        2.0%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        2.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        2.0%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        6.3%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        3.1%        2.7%