Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032021 201209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  33.0  30.5  26.3  27.1  29.3  21.2  37.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  79.3  57.9  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  79.0  75.0  75.0 109.0 136.0  80.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  63.0  63.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   6.0   2.0  -4.0 -80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%