Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032021 201209 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  35.8  33.7  30.9  31.3  39.9  59.7  89.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  50.9  12.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  73.0  44.0  50.0  81.0  41.0 -14.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  44.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   8.0 -13.0 -51.0 -74.0  N  N  N  N  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%