Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032021 201210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  24.9  26.6  30.7  33.5  34.2  30.3  45.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  52.8  39.1  39.7  74.4  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  10.0 -10.0   0.0  31.0  28.0   8.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   3.0  -2.0  14.0   9.0   9.0 -41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.5%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%