Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032021 201210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  27.7  32.7  28.2  33.0  28.8  37.3  32.6  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  44.0  50.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0  78.6  44.2  36.4  53.7  58.8  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   4.0  14.0  22.0 -28.0   1.0  14.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  20.0  28.0  28.0 -13.0 -37.0 -22.0  U  U VU VU VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%