Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052021 201214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    171.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.6  22.3  24.1  20.3  19.0  27.7  35.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  97.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  48.0  68.0  87.0  92.0  67.0  89.0  91.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0 -11.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.4%        6.7%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       37.4%       19.5%       28.4%
 30kt / 24h       37.4%       15.7%       26.5%
 35kt / 24h       37.4%       15.7%       26.5%
 40kt / 24h       37.4%       15.7%       26.5%
 45kt / 36h       13.9%       10.1%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        2.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        7.0%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%