Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052021 201214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    172.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  17.9  13.1  16.1  22.0  24.4  30.0  43.8  N  F  F  F  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  92.0  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  39.0  22.0  40.0  85.0  61.0  58.0  49.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  67.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -9.0 -16.0 -30.0  F  F  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.1%       15.9%       26.5%
 25kt / 24h       65.5%       41.6%       53.5%
 30kt / 24h       65.5%       39.2%       52.3%
 35kt / 24h       65.5%       39.2%       52.3%
 40kt / 24h       65.5%       39.2%       52.3%
 45kt / 36h       39.1%       22.0%       30.5%
 55kt / 36h       24.9%        7.0%       16.0%
 55kt / 48h       21.6%       15.3%       18.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.6%        4.6%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%        5.6%        9.5%