Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052021 201215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    173.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.6  19.8  23.4  29.7  31.5  41.0  39.0  F  F  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  24.0  57.0  62.0  74.0  93.0  60.0  43.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -9.0 -10.0  -8.0 -26.0 -10.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.4%       11.8%       34.1%
 25kt / 24h       40.7%       14.4%       27.6%
 30kt / 24h       40.7%       10.0%       25.3%
 35kt / 24h       40.7%       10.0%       25.3%
 40kt / 24h       40.7%       10.0%       25.3%
 45kt / 36h       68.2%        7.0%       37.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%