Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062021 201216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80    189.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.5  78.2  93.7  81.5  42.7  36.0  34.4  46.4 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  51.7  37.7  30.0  14.0  15.2  15.2  19.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  87.0 109.0  68.0  65.0  91.0  27.0  20.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -51.0 -64.0 -50.0  12.0  33.0   4.0  24.0 VF VF VF VF  U VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons