Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062021 201216 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.80    191.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        81.7  87.3  85.3  70.3  31.2  37.3  36.4  48.2 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.7  38.8  34.7  20.4  15.8  21.2  20.4  21.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0 109.0  68.0  84.0  98.0  37.0  14.0  32.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  47.0  52.0  52.0  U  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -50.0 -64.0 -50.0 -27.0   9.0  10.0   5.0  16.0 VF VF VF VF  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons