Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062021 201216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.90    194.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        59.1  48.0  34.0  25.8  38.2  44.2  45.8  51.5 VU VU  U  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.7  27.6  25.4  23.4  26.9  25.4  28.4  23.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  61.0  40.0  44.0  40.0  29.0  36.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  55.0  50.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -50.0 -36.0 -11.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   7.0  26.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons