Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201225 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90     55.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  14.5  14.6  19.3  11.9  18.4  16.8  23.8  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 120.1 120.1 115.7  51.8  32.8 122.3 130.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  37.0  42.0  44.0  40.0  50.0  54.0  64.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   5.0  13.0  11.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        8.8%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.1%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.2%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        1.2%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%