Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201225 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90     54.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  23.7  27.7  30.1  26.7  24.7  20.6  22.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  33.0  22.0   4.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 127.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 105.5  47.4  45.8  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  14.0  35.0  46.0  48.0  76.0  71.0  57.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  62.0  67.0  68.0  76.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -9.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.7%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        7.4%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        2.8%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%