Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201225 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     53.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  26.2  30.1  28.1  28.2  30.3  33.5  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.1 122.3 122.3 122.3 127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  34.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  78.0  53.0  46.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -9.0  -3.0 -13.0  -7.0  N  F  F  F  F  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        7.9%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        9.8%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        4.7%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.2%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%       10.7%       11.3%