Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     53.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  24.5  19.1  20.5  25.3  24.0  26.9  31.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  28.0  20.0   2.0   3.2   4.4  48.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.1 117.9 115.7 115.7 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  31.0  51.0  55.0  60.0  54.0  84.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  66.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0 -12.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.3%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        9.4%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        4.7%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.9%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        7.0%        5.7%