Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201226 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     50.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  20.4  19.7  22.4  19.4  26.0  27.8  39.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  46.0  39.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         87.7  50.9  26.8  24.7  78.6 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  U VU VU  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  31.0  40.0  65.0  25.0  38.0  11.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -8.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons