Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201227 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  15.5  15.9  19.4  18.4  26.5  21.2  28.1  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.8  83.0 137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 106.2  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  36.0  26.0  13.0  15.0   2.0  -7.0 -16.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   7.0   3.0   7.0   7.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons