Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201227 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     46.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  16.0  22.7  20.1  21.4  30.4  33.5  36.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0  34.0  46.0  45.0  37.0  42.0  29.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.2 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  17.0   4.0  16.0  24.0  17.0 -39.0 -21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   2.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   3.0 -12.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        1.8%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        1.6%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        3.3%        3.5%