Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201227 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20     45.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  22.1  18.8  15.8  31.9  29.3  42.1  28.5  F  N  N  F  U  N VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   4.0  15.0  39.0  21.0  -9.0  -9.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   7.0   0.0  -9.0   6.0 -16.0   1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  N VF  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        9.9%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       11.4%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        4.3%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%