Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201228 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     44.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  18.0  17.9  22.3  29.2  27.6  34.6  27.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  47.0  42.0  37.0  41.0  55.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  12.0  23.0  -8.0  10.0   1.0   7.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -7.0   3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       19.4%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        7.1%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        7.1%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.0%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       18.8%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        6.3%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        9.6%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        5.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%        9.7%        8.1%