Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201228 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00     43.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  17.8  22.3  31.9  26.0  35.9  25.3  28.1  N  F  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  83.0  41.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  23.0  -8.0  -9.0  -3.0  18.0  12.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   4.0  -7.0   1.0  -9.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.1%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        9.7%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.8%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        8.8%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%