Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201228 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  22.4  26.8  24.6  25.5  32.3  15.1  17.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  38.0  51.0  38.0  24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  65.5  54.7  51.8  F  F  F  F  F  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0 -10.0 -21.0  -2.0 -19.0  -1.0  30.0  27.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  43.0  56.0  59.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0  10.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  10.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.3%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       18.1%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        6.8%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        6.8%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.7%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       20.1%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        7.2%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        2.3%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%