Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201229 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     41.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  23.7  19.0  23.0  30.7  21.1  22.3  29.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  52.0  58.0  30.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   9.0 -13.0 -20.0  39.0   9.0  34.0  58.0  U  U  U VU  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  48.0  58.0  61.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  -7.0  -6.0  -2.0 -14.0  -6.0  12.0  N  N  F  F  N VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        9.5%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       41.0%       30.6%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       27.7%       20.3%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       27.7%       18.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       25.3%       15.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       33.1%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       16.1%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%       15.7%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%       10.1%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%       13.9%        9.1%