Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201229 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60     38.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  30.4  36.1  36.1  24.9  28.2  31.5  24.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  19.0   9.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0  81.6  30.0  20.4  43.2  46.7  49.2  N  N  N VU VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0  -2.0  22.0  23.0  20.0  46.0  55.0  24.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  48.0  47.0  56.0  61.0  71.0  68.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   5.0  -3.0  10.0   3.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%        7.9%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        5.9%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.4%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%