Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201230 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20     36.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  35.7  25.5  22.5  23.4  21.6  22.9  27.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.6  19.3  17.9  16.5  13.8  11.0   8.3   5.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0   5.0  -8.0  25.0  40.0  87.0  43.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  56.0  64.0  64.0  75.0  71.0  72.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -4.0  -8.0  -7.0  10.0   2.0  13.0  N  N  F  F  F  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        4.9%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       24.8%       18.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       18.2%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       18.2%       12.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       14.3%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%       14.8%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        5.4%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%       10.5%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%