Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072021 201231 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20     25.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.5  19.7  21.5  15.8  19.8  19.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5  92.2  77.0  75.9  61.6  57.6  64.1  46.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  91.0  65.0  60.0  72.0  55.0  55.0  31.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  80.0  82.0  76.0  84.0  76.0  78.0  64.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   3.0  -3.0  -9.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons