Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.50     72.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  33.0  33.8  36.3  33.2  30.6  33.7  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 117.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  93.0  55.0  47.0  77.0  36.0  57.0   8.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  60.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0 -14.0  -6.0   1.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  F  F VF  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        3.4%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       22.6%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       10.7%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       10.7%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        7.3%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       18.5%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        5.8%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        9.0%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        4.8%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        7.4%        7.6%