Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.80     72.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.9  30.3  33.8  34.6  44.0  49.6  58.9  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  61.0  57.0  50.0  43.0  43.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  76.0  63.0  88.0  49.0  31.0  14.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   8.0  15.0   9.0  12.0   6.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        3.9%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       21.5%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%        9.0%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        9.0%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%        8.6%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       13.7%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        3.9%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        4.9%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%