Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.10     72.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  18.6  20.6  21.1  21.3  28.5  25.3  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  99.0 101.0  92.0  91.0  55.0  73.0  69.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  70.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        5.9%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       23.4%       40.9%       32.2%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       24.9%       18.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       24.9%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       22.8%       14.0%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       38.1%       30.5%
 55kt / 36h       10.1%       17.1%       13.6%
 55kt / 48h       29.4%       27.1%       28.2%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       13.2%       12.0%
 65kt / 72h       33.0%       24.8%       28.9%