Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.70     73.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  33.6  29.5  36.4  49.5  53.9  59.8  56.4  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 100.1  93.6  95.7 104.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  76.0  37.0  25.0  58.0  -1.0 -26.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  19.0   3.0 -13.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.2%        6.7%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       22.2%       28.7%       25.4%
 30kt / 24h       14.0%       16.3%       15.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       16.3%       12.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       14.0%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       11.0%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        3.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%