Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30     74.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  16.2  18.5  22.7  28.7  28.0  36.2  37.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  42.0  42.0  33.0  21.0  12.0   5.0   1.7  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 109.3  97.9  87.4  79.8  74.4  66.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  73.0  73.0  60.0  20.0   1.0   5.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  68.0  62.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.1%       10.7%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       27.3%       42.5%       34.9%
 30kt / 24h       17.2%       31.2%       24.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.3%       31.2%       21.3%
 40kt / 24h       11.3%       30.8%       21.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.6%       20.9%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        8.5%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        6.3%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        3.6%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%