Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.70     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  20.0  23.9  26.0  25.8  26.5  25.0  28.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  37.0  35.0  29.0  12.0   9.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.3 100.1  91.5  87.4  79.8  76.2  78.0  76.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  64.0  21.0  30.0  12.0  10.0  39.0  40.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  56.0  51.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   9.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%       12.2%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       17.6%       33.6%       25.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       25.7%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       25.7%       15.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       18.4%       10.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       17.6%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        7.4%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.9%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%