Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     75.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  32.5  35.6  41.9  38.7  37.9  43.6  42.0  N  U  U VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        109.6 100.7  96.5  94.4  90.5  94.4  83.0  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  27.0   8.0  -8.0 -16.0 -37.0  -7.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  47.0  42.0  52.0  48.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0 -15.0 -26.0 -30.0 -38.0 -42.0 -41.0  N  N VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        6.6%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%