Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     76.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  25.4  22.7  23.7  20.9  20.1  19.2  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  29.0  27.0  24.0  20.0   7.0  15.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1 100.7  96.5  94.4  94.4  90.5  90.5  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   5.0  -7.0  -8.0 -29.0  -8.0 -12.0  29.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  47.0  45.0  40.0  40.0  43.0  46.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -8.0 -11.0  -9.0 -10.0  -8.0  -6.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        7.3%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.6%        1.9%